The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) has launched its ‘The Incredible ULCS: How ultra low-cost solar can unlock Australia’s renewable energy superpower’ white paper.

At the forefront of the white paper is ARENA’s 30-30-30 vision for ultra low-cost solar in Australia, which represents 30% solar module efficiency and an installed cost of 30c p/W by 2030.

ARENA chief executive officer Darren Miller says the vision will not be easy to achieve, but Australia does bring its advantages with its “huge land mass, strong solar resources and abundance of minerals” in which green products can be produced.

“Innovation is key to reducing the cost of solar. Groundbreaking research has been taking place in Australia’s labs since the 1980s and we have homegrown startups such as 5B and SunDrive doing exciting things in novel deployment methods and materials science.

“Now Australia needs to step up support so we can see even further cost reductions through increased module efficiencies, cheaper material costs and innovative ways to deploy and maintain solar out in the field.”

Committing to over $800 million in funding towards solar projects so far, ARENA has been championing the power of solar energy, from funding Australia’s very first large-scale solar farms to funding cutting-edge solar research through the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics (ACAP) and R&D funding rounds.

ARENA sees ultra low-cost solar as a key factor in Australia becoming a renewable energy superpower. While the currently available solar technology is sufficient for domestic energy use, ultra low-cost solar will be needed to significantly reduce the cost of renewable electricity for heavy industrial processes, including enabling the production of green hydrogen below $2 p/kg.

“We need a united front to tackle this task. We’re calling on Australia’s governments, market bodies, developers, investors and innovators across the entire supply chain to commit to these goals. I truly believe that Australia’s solar potential is huge and that we’re well positioned to become a renewable energy superpower,” Darren says.

The main objectives for the white paper include elevating solar in Australia’s national priorities by outlining the benefits that extremely cheap solar could unlock, along with communicating key barriers and innovation priorities for ultra low-cost solar to government, industry and the Australian public.

Solar technology is already mature and sufficiently cost-effective to deploy at scale, and there will be no significant technology breakthroughs needed to achieve Australia’s 2030 goals within the electricity system if strides are made with critical enablers such as energy storage, flexible demand, transmission and grid connection.

However, ARENA sees ultra low-cost solar could lead to much cheaper electricity for Australians and export opportunities to neighbouring countries while supporting the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors such as industry and transport.

This vision requires a step change from where we are today at around 22% solar module efficiency and over $1 p/W installed cost. In terms of total levelised cost of energy (LCOE), ARENA’s vision requires a drop to around one-third of today’s solar LCOE to below $20 p/MW hour.